Posted by
YankeeConservative on Sunday, June 01, 2008 6:30:41 PM
While the punditocracy is out there predicting Hillary's resignation speech, I am officially declaring here that Clinton will rather make a large and spirited effort to win this nomination, and after Saturday, her chances are very, very good.
The general consensus is that Obama scored a big victory Saturday after the rules and bylaws committee issued rulings on Michigan and Florida directly in accordance to Obama's proposed solution - split the Florida votes evenly and split Michigan 69-59. However, upon deeper reflection one might reconsider who the committee was posturing to give the nomination. It seems clear the answer is Hillary, not Obama, since their absurd conclusion on MI has probably done more damage to Obama and party unity than anything throughout the entire election.
The reason is that the result of the meeting established three important precedents. One, that the FL and MI elections count, except that the delegates get a half a vote instead of a full vote. This supports the idea that regardless of the delegate count, the Florida votes are fair game when calculating the popular vote, and by that I mean all of them. As hard as it is to justify penalizing delegates, its impossible to justify throwing away votes when gauging the "true" will of the people. Second, the decision suggests the Democratic party is corrupt and in the tank for Obama. There is no surer sign of this other than the fact that Hillary lost 4 delegates she won in MI, when the DNC decided for whatever reason to give them to Obama instead. This further supports the argument that the delegate count is not the reflection of the people's will. Finally, and surprisingly the least relevant, the Democratic party is a deeply dysfunctional and undemocratic hypocrisy which has shamed many to call themselves democrats.
I think Republicans should start reconsidering the notion that they may wake up one day to find themselves running against Clinton this fall, and not Obama.
Why? Because all the relevant arguments have entirely shifted after Saturday. Neither candidate won enough votes, so now the super delegates decide. The main argument is that if the super-politicians overturn the will of the people, then that is a sham. However, after Saturday, it seems clear that supporting Obama, and not Clinton, is what would be guilty of that sham. Clinton now has the majority of votes, and the MI pledged delegates have been shadily re-distributed by party insiders. The case can now be strongly made that the delegate count is a ridiculous gauge of the voter’s preference.
Given Obama’s embarrassing defeats in late primaries, the gift to Hillary by the rules committee, and the state polls which show Hillary as MUCH stronger against McCain, a lot of opinions are going to change, and the past few days of protests are what is going to stimulate that and justify Hillary’s late takeover.
While Obama might feel good about Saturday, he shouldn’t, and should reconsider how many on that committee were truly his friends.
UPDATED: Check out the South Dakota and Montana polls which show Clinton ahead by almost 30 in South Dakota and trailing by only 4 in Montana.
www.pollster.com/. For those of us that remember how Obama had a tendency to "overpoll" in most states, while "underpolling" in southern states with large black populations, this means that Hillary might win both elections on Tuesday.
Now where would that place the Democratic super-politicians in their decision making process?